Note: I published this first to Medium on January 1st, 2021.
So, how did I fare against my predictions for 2020?
Data deals
I saw no sign of this slowing or stopping. Financial players such as Plaid (acquired by VISA for $5.3 Bn) and companies offering deferred payment mechanisms (such as Afterpay) hold an immense amount of transaction-level information and can build real-time credit-worthiness models. Massive value in this area, and I expect to see more acquisitions as incumbents race to stabilize their moats.
Cash transactions
The global COVID shutdowns accelerated the trend toward digital and online transactions, with all businesses in my area (and I’m assuming many others) refusing cash. As the default narrative builds around cash being ‘dirty’ or antiquated, we’ll likely see new categories where it is in effect refused for transaction.
Neighborhood surveillance
This grew more troubling, with the launch of the Ring Neighbors app. Continuing through 2021, an increase in ‘everyday’ camera usage and sharp decrease in the number of places one can exist without being watched are safe bets. Partnerships/deals with law enforcement make this an increasingly uncomfortable space.
Digital beauty
A couple companies have set a stance on this issue, but I don’t see it disappearing from phones. We all want to look our best and believe if it is digitally assisted, that it is only just so. “Google wants to ban camera skin smoothing and lightning by default in Android 11”
Good news for the wealthy
Substack, one of many newsletter services writers and media personalities have cited multiple authors earning >$100k annually. This feels like a overheated area at the moment, but I expect a much larger second wave of growth, like Kickstarter and Patreon have experienced.
Onto 2021
Surveillance, AI Fairness, DEI, and the nature of work in a world of low-contact are hot issues. There is consistently more going on than anyone can keep track of, so in expecting last year’s list of issues to advance here’s a bit of what I’m guessing 2021 also includes.
Philanthropic gig economy workers begin to resist
I’ve felt poorly for years about most of the venture capital backed ‘gig’ economy structure and what shapes they mold people into. Continuing to risk someone else’s health to secure one’s groceries for tip money is a grim thing that I suspect will lead to further abuse and eventual resistance/gathering in 2021.
Through 2020 work situations went in three strong directions: a shut down and liquidation of many in-person service-based businesses, accelerated growth in all services deemed essential, and white collar workers that have been asked to work from home, and who rely on the labour and service of those in the two prior categories who charitably sell their time for much less than it is worth.
The wealthy remain remote
In addition to reliance on low paid service workers for transport, grocery, and more, those who have been instructed to work from home continue to have an “all right” time of it. More stories of the joys of watching one’s kids grow up in person, more stories about moving to where feels best, more stories about people finding and developing their passions.
As companies begin calling workers back to offices, I expect to see the largest companies use their support and acceptance of distributed work as a recruitment and retention factor. At a certain point the things that matter more than the money become decision factors.
No vaccine for me in 2021
I want it, though. I have a hard time believing the necessary infrastructure and operations required to serve two doses of vaccine to 350mm Americans will be established in the year ahead.
On my immigrant angle, I also have unknowns on whether the vaccine is extended to the tens of millions of people who are not American Citizens and are merely (like myself) Permanent Residents. This country consistently loads a lot of meaning and gatekeeping into the word American. By 2022 I expect to have had it in some form or another, either through the system growing to support people or through my own means.
Troubles which seem inevitable, so I won’t elaborate
- More summer protests around equality, visibility, and justice
- Tech companies will continue to fight their own failures in diversity, equity, and inclusion
- Summer fires through the Pacific Northwest and California, reaching closer to the edge of San Jose than 2020, and potentially within the city bounds.
- Bitcoin ($20k+) and Tesla ($705/share, 668.91B Mkt cap), double in value, and continue their multi-year escape from reality’s gravity
- Wild guess: some US town with population >10,000 makes news for building its own wall or actively denying access to “outsiders”
Then what? / Read the big disclaimer here
Looking back on 2020, which was largely spent indoors, I’m mostly surprised by how rapidly things can change with (seemingly) little action, and reminded that things will continue to change rapidly. I only hope we can remain from getting nauseous from the movement in the year ahead.
Nothing posted here is printed with non-public information. These are some fairly basic shifts in public life that felt somewhat natural in 2020, but also wouldn’t have even been considered two years ago.